Downward revision to the FY2010 growth rate of 2.0%, overseas economic slowdown, etc. = Government estimate

The Cabinet Office told the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy on the 25th of July that the growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 will be 2.0%. External demand has been a downward factor due to the slowdown of overseas economies, and the outlook as of January has been revised downward from 3.2%. On the other hand, it is expected that service consumption, which has fallen due to the effects of the new coronavirus infection, will recover.

In the future, as the prevention of the spread of infection and the balance of economic and social activities continue, it is expected that private demand such as consumption and investment will recover. On the other hand, he warned, "It is necessary to pay close attention to the further rise in raw material prices due to the prolonged situation in Ukraine, supply restrictions, trends in infectious diseases in Japan and overseas, and fluctuations in the financial and capital markets."

As for the main items, the forecast value of exports was increased by 2.5%, down from the 5.5% increase as of January. Based on the impact of China's lockdown (city blockade) and the outlook for a slowdown in the global economy. The contribution to external demand was set at minus 0.3%, which was revised downward from the previous forecast of plus 0.2%. Private consumption is expected to increase by 3.6%.

Consumer prices (comprehensive) are expected to increase by 2.6% due to soaring crude oil prices, rising energy prices due to the depreciation of the yen, and rising food prices, which is a significant increase from 0.9% six months ago.

In FY2011, while the pace of recovery from the Korona-ka is returning to cruising speed, consumption and capital investment are recovering, and the real economic growth rate of 1.1% is expected to reach 554.7 trillion yen, the largest economic scale ever. As of January, it was expected to be the largest ever this year, but it has been carried over to next year.

the detail is right below. (unit:%)

2010 23

January estimate this time this time

Real growth rate 3.2 2.0 1.1