■ 7th consecutive growth without losing, growth stocks tow
This week's Nikkei average is 1126.19 yen higher (+ 4.20%) for 3 consecutive weeks. Following the 26-week moving average, the 52-week line has also surpassed at once. The Nikkei average has made a great leap forward from the 13th to the 7th consecutive growth without losing.
At the beginning of the week, reports of a reduction in new hires and a slowdown in spending by Apple, a major smartphone company, during the holidays cooled investor sentiment. However, in addition to the good financial results of the U.S. financial giant, the long-term expected inflation rate of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell to the lowest level in a year in July, and the sentiment improvement due to the retreat of the observation of a significant rate hike outweighed the rise. It started. After that, the rise was boosted by reports that Russia's state-owned gas company would resume exporting natural gas to Europe through the pipeline "Nord Stream 1".
As for corporate financial results that were wary, the financial results of U.S. video distribution service Netflix and electric vehicle (EV) giant Tesla exceeded expectations, spurring the repurchase of high-tech growth stocks from the previous week. .. Despite the destabilization of Italy's political situation and a sharp rate hike (0.5pt) that exceeded expectations (0.25pt) by the European Central Bank (ECB), the stock market in Japan and the United States is strong in driving growth stocks. It kept moving. On the other hand, housing-related indicators and economic indicators in the United States were lower than expected across the board, and resource-related stocks and economic-sensitive stocks were relatively dull amid growing concerns about a recession.
■ FOMC pays attention to references to rate hikes after September
Is the Tokyo stock market nervous next week? With the April-June financial results of major Japanese and US companies in full swing and the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ahead, it will take some time for the direction to be set as the events are concentrated.
The FOMC will be held from 26th to 27th. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was significantly higher than expected in June, and a super-significant rate hike of 1.00pt was warned at one point. These movements have subsided. The market has fully factored in a 0.75pt rate hike, which is probably as expected. It is unlikely that a big surprise will occur because we once incorporated a 1.00pt rate hike. On the other hand, if the next September meeting also shows a view that will leave implications for rate hikes of 0.75pt or more, the market is currently becoming a little optimistic about rate hikes, and sales are likely to swell.
Another noteworthy point is the April-June financial results of major Japanese and US companies. From the middle of the week, companies with high attention in both Japan and the United States will announce their financial results one after another. Of particular note is the financial results of a large tech company known as "GAFAM" by Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, and Amazon.com in the United States. It has a great influence on the market, and attention is paid to the financial results and stock price reaction.
Netflix and Tesla, which were announced earlier, had higher-than-expected financial results, and their stock prices rose significantly. In the United States, other announced companies also performed better than expected. As a result, negative surprises are unlikely to occur as a result of a considerable amount of caution in the April-June financial results. If the FOMC passes safely and GAFAM's financial results are as strong as many companies so far, the market is likely to bottom out.
On the other hand, it is thought that the recent rise in the market price is merely a movement of institutional investors trying to return the position that was overly pessimistic before the settlement of accounts to neutrality, and the rate of increase after the announcement of the settlement of accounts is limited. There is a possibility that it will be done. In fact, Nidec < 6594 >Although the financial results were not bad, the stock price had risen before the financial results, but after the financial results were announced, sales continued until the weekend. It is presumed that while the profit of the selling position is secured by repurchasing before the settlement of accounts, there is also a movement to sell again after the settlement of accounts.
Under these circumstances, if many of GAFAM's financial results are lower than expected, it will be a good idea to put aside the current rebound, and there is a good chance that the market will be pushed back to the level before the closing season. In other words, the direction can change greatly depending on the result, so it is important to avoid building a position before passing the event and carefully examine the results of various events.
■ Is the rebound of growth stocks a break?
As mentioned above, if the position consolidation before the settlement of accounts is the cause of the recent rise in the stock price, there is a possibility that the rebound of growth stocks will soon come to an end when the announcement of the settlement of accounts is in full swing. In the United States, the financial results of social networking service companies such as Snapchat and Twitter have been disappointing. Similarly, there is a growing sense of caution about the financial results of Alphabet and Meta, which are engaged in the advertising business, and we would like to pay attention to whether there will be a move to resell growth stocks.
■ US FOMC, US April-June GDP preliminary figures, June mining, and industrial production, etc.
Next week, June 25th, June national department store sales, Germany, July Ifo business sentiment index, 26th, Japan Bank monetary policy decision meeting agenda ( June 16-17), US FOMC (~ 7/27), US May S & P Core Logic Case-Schiller Home Price Index, US July CB Consumer Confidence Index, US June New Home Sales, FRB Chairman's meeting on 27th, US June durable goods orders, 28th US April-June GDP preliminary figures, June 29th unemployment rate / effective recruitment ratio, June mining and industrial production, June consumption trend survey, June Housing Start Statistics, "Main Opinions" of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting (held from July 20 to 21), Eurozone April-June GDP, June Personal Income and Personal Expenditure (PCE), US June PCE core deflator, etc. will be announced.
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