Is the Tokyo stock market nervous next week? With the April-June financial results of major Japanese and US companies in full swing and the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ahead, it will take some time for the direction to be set as the events are concentrated.


The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be held from 26th to 27th. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was significantly higher than expected in June, and a super-significant rate hike of 1.00pt was warned at one point. These movements have subsided. The market has fully factored in a 0.75pt rate hike, which is probably as expected. It is unlikely that a big surprise will occur because we once incorporated a 1.00pt rate hike. On the other hand, if the next September meeting also shows the view that the rate hike of 0.75pt or more will leave implications, the market is currently becoming a little optimistic about the rate hike, and sales are likely to swell.


Another noteworthy point is the April-June financial results of major Japanese and US companies. From the middle of the week, companies with high attention in both Japan and the United States will announce their financial results one after another. Of particular note is the financial results of a large tech company known as "GAFAM" by Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, and Amazon.com in the United States. It has a great influence on the market, and attention is paid to the financial results and stock price reaction.


Netflix and Tesla, which were announced earlier, had higher-than-expected financial results, and their stock prices rose significantly. In the United States, other announced companies also performed better than expected. As a result, negative surprises are unlikely to occur as a result of a considerable amount of caution in the April-June financial results. If the FOMC passes safely and GAFAM's financial results are as strong as many companies so far, the market is likely to bottom out.


On the other hand, it is thought that the recent rise in the market price is merely a movement of institutional investors trying to return the position that was overly pessimistic before the settlement of accounts to neutrality, and the rate of increase after the announcement of the settlement of accounts is limited. There is a possibility that it will be done. In fact, Nidec < 6954 > had a good financial result, but while the stock price had risen before the financial results, it turned around after the financial results were announced and continued to sell until the weekend. It is presumed that while the profit of the selling position is secured by repurchasing before the settlement of accounts, there is also a movement to sell again after the settlement of accounts.


Under these circumstances, if many of GAFAM's financial results are lower than expected, it will be a good idea to put aside the current rebound, and there is a good chance that the market will be pushed back to the level before the closing season. In other words, the direction can change greatly depending on the result, so it is important to avoid building a position before passing the event and carefully examine the results of various events.


As mentioned above, if the position consolidation before the settlement of accounts is the cause of the recent rise in the stock price, there is a possibility that the rebound of growth stocks will soon come to an end when the announcement of the settlement of accounts is in full swing. In the United States, the financial results of social networking service companies such as Snapchat and Twitter have been disappointing. Similarly, there is a growing sense of caution about the financial results of Alphabet and Meta, which are engaged in the advertising business, and we would like to pay attention to whether there will be a move to resell growth stocks.



■ Forex market outlook


Is the dollar/yen pair reluctant to fall next week? Inflation is accelerating in the June US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released this month, raising the possibility of an additional 0.75 point hike, which Fed director Waller has expressed support for. However, the tightening of the FOMC has already been factored in, and there is a possibility that dollar selling will strengthen slightly due to the exhaustion of dollar buying materials after the policy decision. Still, the dollar could be repurchased if improvements in economic data reduce the likelihood of a US recession.


According to economic indicators released next week, the preliminary GDP figures for the US April-June quarter, which are scheduled to be released on the 28th, are likely to be a strong clue. The annual rate is + 0.5% compared to the previous quarter, which is expected to improve from the previous time. It was -1.6% in the January-March quarter, but if it matches or exceeds market expectations, recession-concerned dollar sales are likely to recede. At the monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Japan decided to maintain the current large-scale monetary easing policy. It is unlikely that dollar buying and yen selling will shrink immediately due to the difference in the direction of monetary policy between Japan and the United States. In the short term, it will remain mainly in the 136 yen range, and it is expected that it will continue to be reluctant to lower.